Hume City vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Australia - Victoria NPL Regular Season - 11 Saturday, May 2, 2026 04:00

Hume City PPG 1.80

2-1 HIT CS4

Heidelberg Utd PPG 2.40

Draw· -0.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Hume City face Heidelberg Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hume City a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Heidelberg Utd 40%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hume City and 1.5 for Heidelberg Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hume City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.40 for Heidelberg Utd. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.5%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -2.4%

Draw 28.9%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -0.3%

Away 39.6%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -18.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.2% Odds: 1.77 -7.6%

Over 3.5 30.0% Odds: 2.95 -11.5%

BTTS 57.7% Odds: 1.62 -6.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Hume City

1.29

Heidelberg Utd

1.47

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -6.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 39%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 58% (19 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.80)