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Hume City vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 04:00

Hume City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.3%0-26.8%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.1%1-112.0%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.7%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

Draw 28.9% 29.0% 3.45 -0.3%

Away win 39.6% 48.8% 2.05 -18.8%

Over 2.5 52.2% 56.5% 1.77 -7.6%

Over 3.5 30.0% 33.9% 2.95 -11.5%

BTTS 57.7% 61.7% 1.62 -6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.7%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 2–1✓ 7.7%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hume City1.3

Heidelberg Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HUME CITY · PPG 1.80

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Hume City (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.4%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -0.3%

Heidelberg Utd (A) 39.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hume City face Heidelberg Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hume City a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Heidelberg Utd 40%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hume City and 1.5 for Heidelberg Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hume City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.40 for Heidelberg Utd. This match finished 2-1.

Hume City vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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