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UNSW vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 04:00

UNSW

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Blacktown City

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.8%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.0%1-19.5%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.7%3-16.3%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.0%4+-23.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 40.8% 2.45 +24.9%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 24.5% 40.8% 2.45 -40.0%

Over 2.5 65.0% 63.7% 1.57 +2.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 41.7% 2.40 +3.2%

BTTS 65.5% 69.0% 1.45 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.5%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 2–2✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW2.0

Blacktown City1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.80

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.83

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +24.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Blacktown City (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -40.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Blacktown City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Blacktown City 25%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for UNSW and 1.4 for Blacktown City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.83 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 2-2.

UNSW vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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