UNSW vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Australia - New South Wales NPL Regular Season - 13 The Village Green Saturday, May 2, 2026 04:00

UNSW PPG 1.80

2-2 HIT CS5

Blacktown City PPG 0.83

Home· +24.9% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Blacktown City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Blacktown City 25%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for UNSW and 1.4 for Blacktown City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.83 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.0%

Odds: 2.45 EV: +24.9%

Draw 24.5%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -11.8%

Away 24.5%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -40.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.0% Odds: 1.57 +2.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% Odds: 2.40 +3.2%

BTTS 65.5% Odds: 1.45 -5.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-2 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

UNSW

2.00

Blacktown City

1.35

Model SuggestionBTTS -5.0% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-5.0%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 71% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=51.0%