Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / Real Pilar vs Argentino Merlo

Real Pilar vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

Real Pilar

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-111.4%0-25.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.1%1-113.3%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-17.7%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.0%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% — — —

Draw 34.1% — — —

Away win 25.7% — — —

Over 2.5 33.4% — — —

Over 3.5 15.0% — — —

BTTS 42.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.1%

H 40% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Pilar1.2

Argentino Merlo0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.50

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Real Pilar (H) 40.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Argentino Merlo (A) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Pilar face Argentino Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Pilar a 40% chance, the draw 34% and Argentino Merlo 26%, so Real Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Pilar and 0.9 for Argentino Merlo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Pilar are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Argentino Merlo. This match finished 1-1.

Real Pilar vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions