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Dock Sud vs Defensores U. Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

Dock Sud

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Defensores U.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-112.6%0-25.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.1%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-17.1%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.8%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% — — —

Draw 35.2% — — —

Away win 27.9% — — —

Over 2.5 31.1% — — —

Over 3.5 13.5% — — —

BTTS 40.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob40.6%

D 35% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dock Sud1.1

Defensores U.0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.1% · O3.5 PROB 13.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DOCK SUD · PPG 1.33

DEFENSORES U. · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=37.0%

Win probability 1X2

Dock Sud (H) 37.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Defensores U. (A) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dock Sud face Defensores U. in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dock Sud a 37% chance, the draw 35% and Defensores U. 28%, so Dock Sud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dock Sud and 0.9 for Defensores U. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dock Sud are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Defensores U.. This match finished 2-0.

Dock Sud vs Defensores U. Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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