Today / Ajax Amsterdam vs PSV Eindhoven

Ajax Amsterdam vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Ajax Amsterdam

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

PSV Eindhoven

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.7%0-25.2%0-33.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.1%1-19.3%1-28.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.3%3-14.2%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 41.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 45.7% — — —

BTTS 69.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.1%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2✓ 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ajax Amsterdam1.6

PSV Eindhoven1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AJAX AMSTERDAM · PPG 2.00

PSV EINDHOVEN · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ajax Amsterdam (H) 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

PSV Eindhoven (A) 41.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ajax Amsterdam face PSV Eindhoven on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ajax Amsterdam a 33% chance, the draw 25% and PSV Eindhoven 42%, so PSV Eindhoven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ajax Amsterdam and 1.8 for PSV Eindhoven (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ajax Amsterdam are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.60 for PSV Eindhoven. This match finished 2-2.

Ajax Amsterdam vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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