Today / LKS Lodz vs Pogon Siedlce

LKS Lodz vs Pogon Siedlce Prediction

Saturday, May 2, 2026

LKS Lodz

PPG 1.71 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pogon Siedlce

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.4%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.8%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% — — —

Draw 30.8% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 44.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.4% — — —

BTTS 51.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.5%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LKS Lodz1.4

Pogon Siedlce1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LKS LODZ · PPG 1.71

POGON SIEDLCE · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

LKS Lodz (H) 41.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pogon Siedlce (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

LKS Lodz face Pogon Siedlce on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LKS Lodz a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Pogon Siedlce 28%, so LKS Lodz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for LKS Lodz and 1.1 for Pogon Siedlce (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LKS Lodz are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.13 for Pogon Siedlce. This match finished 4-0.

LKS Lodz vs Pogon Siedlce Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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