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Zamora vs Ponferradina Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

Zamora

PPG 1.88 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Ponferradina

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.9%0-25.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.8%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.8%2-17.6%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.9%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 46.5% 2.15 -20.2%

Draw 33.9% 33.3% 3.00 +1.7%

Away win 29.1% 30.3% 3.30 -4.0%

Over 2.5 35.0% 40.8% 2.45 -14.2%

Over 3.5 16.1% 22.2% 4.50 -27.6%

BTTS 44.1% 50.0% 2.00 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.1%

D 34% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zamora1.1

Ponferradina1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAMORA · PPG 1.88

PONFERRADINA · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Zamora (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -20.2%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.7%

Ponferradina (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamora face Ponferradina in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamora a 37% chance, the draw 34% and Ponferradina 29%, so Zamora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Zamora and 1.0 for Ponferradina (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamora are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.41 for Ponferradina. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Zamora vs Ponferradina Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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