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Talavera CF vs Arenas Club Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 logo Spain flag Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 35 Estadio El Prado· Talavera de la Reina Saturday, May 2, 2026 16:30
Talavera CF logo Talavera CF PPG 1.35
2-1 HIT CS4
Arenas Club logo Arenas Club PPG 0.71
Away· +8.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Talavera CF face Arenas Club in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talavera CF a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Arenas Club 28%, so Talavera CF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Talavera CF and 1.0 for Arenas Club (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talavera CF are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 0.71 for Arenas Club. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.9%
Odds: 1.95 EV: -22.2%
Draw 32.0%
Odds: 3.10 EV: -0.8%
Away 28.1%
Odds: 3.85 EV: +8.2%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.6% Odds: 2.20 -10.7%
Over 3.5 20.3% Odds: 4.00 -18.8%
BTTS 48.4% Odds: 1.90 -8.0%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 2-1
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Talavera CF
1.27
Arenas Club
1.03

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.35) > Away POOR (0.71)

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