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Talavera CF vs Arenas Club Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

Talavera CF

PPG 1.35 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Arenas Club

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.3%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.7%1-113.1%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 51.3% 1.95 -22.2%

Draw 32.0% 32.3% 3.10 -0.8%

Away win 28.1% 26.0% 3.85 +8.2%

Over 2.5 40.6% 45.5% 2.20 -10.7%

Over 3.5 20.3% 25.0% 4.00 -18.8%

BTTS 48.4% 52.6% 1.90 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1✓ 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Talavera CF1.3

Arenas Club1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TALAVERA CF · PPG 1.35

ARENAS CLUB · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.35) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Talavera CF (H) 39.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -22.2%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.8%

Arenas Club (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Talavera CF face Arenas Club in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talavera CF a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Arenas Club 28%, so Talavera CF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Talavera CF and 1.0 for Arenas Club (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talavera CF are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 0.71 for Arenas Club. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Talavera CF vs Arenas Club Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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