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Petrovac vs Decic Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:00

Petrovac

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Decic

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-19.6%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.4%1-112.9%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.6%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.0%3-13.9%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 46.5% 2.15 -6.7%

Draw 31.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.4%

Away win 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -20.0%

Over 2.5 40.5% 40.0% 2.50 +1.3%

Over 3.5 20.2% — — —

BTTS 47.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrovac1.3

Decic1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROVAC · PPG 1.73

DECIC · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Petrovac (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.7%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.4%

Decic (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrovac face Decic in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrovac a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Decic 25%, so Petrovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Petrovac and 1.0 for Decic (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrovac are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.27 for Decic. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Petrovac vs Decic Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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