Today / Montenegro - First League / Mornar Bar vs Jedinstvo

Mornar Bar vs Jedinstvo Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Mornar Bar

PPG 2.27 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jedinstvo

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.7%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.3%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 70.4% 1.42 -19.8%

Draw 27.4% 25.6% 3.90 +6.9%

Away win 16.1% 16.0% 6.25 +0.6%

Over 2.5 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Over 3.5 24.1% — — —

BTTS 46.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.9%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mornar Bar1.7

Jedinstvo0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MORNAR BAR · PPG 2.27

JEDINSTVO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs P(Home)=56.5%

Win probability 1X2

Mornar Bar (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -19.8%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +6.9%

Jedinstvo (A) 16.1%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mornar Bar face Jedinstvo in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mornar Bar a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Jedinstvo 16%, so Mornar Bar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mornar Bar and 0.8 for Jedinstvo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mornar Bar are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.80 for Jedinstvo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Mornar Bar vs Jedinstvo Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Montenegro - First League Predictions