Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Montenegro - First League Regular Season - 32 Stadion Pod Racinom· Plav Saturday, May 2, 2026 16:00

Jezero PPG 1.47

0-0 HIT CS2

Arsenal Tivat PPG 1.00

Home· +13.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Jezero face Arsenal Tivat in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jezero a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Arsenal Tivat 27%, so Jezero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jezero and 1.0 for Arsenal Tivat (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jezero are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.00 for Arsenal Tivat. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.2%

Odds: 2.75 EV: +13.3%

Draw 31.4%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -21.5%

Away 27.4%

Odds: 2.80 EV: -23.3%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.4% Odds: 2.50 +6.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% Odds: — —

BTTS 49.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Jezero

1.33

Arsenal Tivat

1.04

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -57.2%

Bet Hit 22% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)