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Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:00

Jezero

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Arsenal Tivat

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.7%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.6%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 36.4% 2.75 +13.3%

Draw 31.4% 40.0% 2.50 -21.5%

Away win 27.4% 35.7% 2.80 -23.3%

Over 2.5 42.4% 40.0% 2.50 +6.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.6%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 9.3%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jezero1.3

Arsenal Tivat1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JEZERO · PPG 1.47

ARSENAL TIVAT · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jezero (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +13.3%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.5%

Arsenal Tivat (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jezero face Arsenal Tivat in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jezero a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Arsenal Tivat 27%, so Jezero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jezero and 1.0 for Arsenal Tivat (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jezero are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.00 for Arsenal Tivat. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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