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Bokelj vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Bokelj

PPG 0.87 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sutjeska

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.87)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.5%0-28.5%0-34.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.5%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 25.0% 4.00 +3.2%

Draw 29.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.6%

Away win 44.4% 55.6% 1.80 -20.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 44.4% 2.25 +5.3%

Over 3.5 25.3% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bokelj1.1

Sutjeska1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOKELJ · PPG 0.87

SUTJESKA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Bokelj (H) 25.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.2%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.6%

Sutjeska (A) 44.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bokelj face Sutjeska in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bokelj a 26% chance, the draw 30% and Sutjeska 44%, so Sutjeska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bokelj and 1.5 for Sutjeska (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bokelj are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.60 for Sutjeska. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Bokelj vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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