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Juventud vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:30

Juventud

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wanderers

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.0%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.3%1-112.9%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.3%2-18.3%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 48.1% 2.08 -21.6%

Draw 31.2% 32.3% 3.10 -3.3%

Away win 31.1% 28.6% 3.50 +8.8%

Over 2.5 44.0% 42.6% 2.35 +3.4%

Over 3.5 22.9% 22.2% 4.50 +3.0%

BTTS 51.4% 51.3% 1.95 +0.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.4%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1✓ 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud1.3

Wanderers1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD · PPG 1.00

WANDERERS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Juventud (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -21.6%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.3%

Wanderers (A) 31.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud face Wanderers in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud a 38% chance, the draw 31% and Wanderers 31%, so Juventud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Juventud and 1.1 for Wanderers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Juventud vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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