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Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:15

Racing Ferrol

PPG 1.59 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Pontevedra

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-113.5%0-27.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.4%1-113.4%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.6%2-16.6%2-23.9%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.9%3-12.2%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 40.0% 2.50 -28.0%

Draw 33.3% 33.3% 3.00 -0.1%

Away win 37.9% 37.0% 2.70 +2.3%

Over 2.5 36.7% 43.5% 2.30 -15.6%

Over 3.5 17.3% 23.1% 4.33 -25.1%

BTTS 45.4% 52.6% 1.90 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.4%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0✓ 11.5%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Ferrol1.0

Pontevedra1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING FERROL · PPG 1.59

PONTEVEDRA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.59), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Racing Ferrol (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -28.0%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -0.1%

Pontevedra (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Ferrol face Pontevedra in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Ferrol a 29% chance, the draw 33% and Pontevedra 38%, so Pontevedra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Racing Ferrol and 1.2 for Pontevedra (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Ferrol are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.47 for Pontevedra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Racing Ferrol vs Pontevedra Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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