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Vaprus vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Vaprus

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nomme Utd

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.4%0-23.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.8%1-18.5%1-27.5%1-34.5%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.9%3-15.2%3-24.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -15.3%

Away win 35.2% 35.7% 2.80 -1.4%

Over 2.5 71.2% — — —

Over 3.5 50.3% — — —

BTTS 72.1% 69.4% 1.44 +3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob72.1%

H 41% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus1.9

Nomme Utd1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.2% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.33

NOMME UTD · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=40.6%

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -12.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.3%

Nomme Utd (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Nomme Utd in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Nomme Utd 35%, so Vaprus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Vaprus and 1.8 for Nomme Utd (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.25 for Nomme Utd. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Vaprus vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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