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Nottingham F. W vs Southampton W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Nottingham F. W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Southampton W

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.70)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.1%0-26.9%0-33.9%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.5%1-110.9%1-29.2%1-35.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.4%2-17.4%2-26.2%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.0%3-13.3%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 45.5% 2.20 -36.2%

Draw 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -13.6%

Away win 44.0% 34.7% 2.88 +26.7%

Over 2.5 58.5% 54.1% 1.85 +8.2%

Over 3.5 36.1% — — —

BTTS 62.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.0%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottingham F. W1.3

Southampton W1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTINGHAM F. W · PPG 1.50

SOUTHAMPTON W · PPG 1.70

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Nottingham F. W (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -36.2%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.6%

Southampton W (A) 44.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottingham F. W face Southampton W in England - Women's Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottingham F. W a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Southampton W 44%, so Southampton W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nottingham F. W and 1.7 for Southampton W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottingham F. W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.70 for Southampton W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Nottingham F. W vs Southampton W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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