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Durham W vs Sheffield Utd W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Durham W

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sheffield Utd W

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.6%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.5%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.4%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Draw 28.3% 30.3% 3.30 -6.6%

Away win 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 35.6% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Durham W1.9

Sheffield Utd W1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DURHAM W · PPG 1.20

SHEFFIELD UTD W · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Durham W (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.7%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.6%

Sheffield Utd W (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Durham W face Sheffield Utd W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Durham W a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Sheffield Utd W 25%, so Durham W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Durham W and 1.1 for Sheffield Utd W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Durham W are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.60 for Sheffield Utd W. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Durham W vs Sheffield Utd W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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