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Bristol City W vs Newcastle W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Bristol City W

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Newcastle W

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.7%0-23.7%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.7%1-19.0%1-27.2%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.5%3-15.6%3-24.5%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.2%4+-23.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 36.4% 2.75 +20.4%

Draw 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.9%

Away win 28.0% 45.5% 2.20 -38.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% 57.8% 1.73 +4.7%

Over 3.5 47.0% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1✓ 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bristol City W1.9

Newcastle W1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISTOL CITY W · PPG 1.80

NEWCASTLE W · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Bristol City W (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +20.4%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.9%

Newcastle W (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -38.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bristol City W face Newcastle W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bristol City W a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Newcastle W 28%, so Bristol City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bristol City W and 1.6 for Newcastle W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bristol City W are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Newcastle W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Bristol City W vs Newcastle W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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