Newcastle W vs Durham W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

England - Women's Championship Regular Season - 22 Gateshead International Stadium· Gateshead Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Newcastle W PPG 1.70

0-1 MISS

Durham W PPG 0.40

Draw· +6.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle W face Durham W in England - Women's Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle W a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Durham W 20%, so Newcastle W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Newcastle W and 1.0 for Durham W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle W are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.40 for Durham W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.9%

Odds: 1.48 EV: -20.2%

Draw 26.5%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +6.0%

Away 19.6%

Odds: 5.10 EV: -0.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.8% Odds: 1.50 -20.8%

Over 3.5 30.6% Odds: — —

BTTS 54.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Newcastle W

1.78

Durham W

1.01

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+6.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.70) vs P(Home)=53.9%