Today / England - Women's Championship / Newcastle W vs Durham W

Newcastle W vs Durham W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Newcastle W

PPG 1.70 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Durham W

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.70) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.2%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-111.0%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.8%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 67.6% 1.48 -20.2%

Draw 26.5% 25.0% 4.00 +6.0%

Away win 19.6% 19.6% 5.10 -0.0%

Over 2.5 52.8% 66.7% 1.50 -20.8%

Over 3.5 30.6% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle W1.8

Durham W1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE W · PPG 1.70

DURHAM W · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.70) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle W (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -20.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +6.0%

Durham W (A) 19.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle W face Durham W in England - Women's Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle W a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Durham W 20%, so Newcastle W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Newcastle W and 1.0 for Durham W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle W are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.40 for Durham W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Newcastle W vs Durham W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Women's Championship Predictions