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Crystal P. W vs Portsmouth W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Crystal P. W

PPG 2.10 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Portsmouth W

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.1%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.4%1-17.7%1-24.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-17.8%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-18.7%4+-24.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.5% 83.3% 1.20 -19.0%

Draw 19.6% 18.5% 5.40 +5.8%

Away win 13.0% 9.8% 10.25 +33.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 66.7% 1.50 +2.3%

Over 3.5 46.6% — — —

BTTS 60.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.4%

H 68% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crystal P. W2.5

Portsmouth W1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CRYSTAL P. W · PPG 2.10

PORTSMOUTH W · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.10), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Crystal P. W (H) 67.5%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -19.0%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +5.8%

Portsmouth W (A) 13.0%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crystal P. W face Portsmouth W in England - Women's Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crystal P. W a 68% chance, the draw 20% and Portsmouth W 13%, so Crystal P. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Crystal P. W and 1.0 for Portsmouth W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crystal P. W are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.60 for Portsmouth W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 6-1.

Crystal P. W vs Portsmouth W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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