Today / England - Women's Championship / Charlton W vs Birmingham W

Charlton W vs Birmingham W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Charlton W

PPG 2.30 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Birmingham W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.30), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.6%0-26.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.7%1-112.5%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-18.2%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 31.3% 3.20 +13.3%

Draw 30.1% 32.3% 3.10 -6.7%

Away win 34.5% 48.8% 2.05 -29.3%

Over 2.5 48.3% 52.6% 1.90 -8.2%

Over 3.5 26.5% — — —

BTTS 54.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.9%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlton W1.3

Birmingham W1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLTON W · PPG 2.30

BIRMINGHAM W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.30), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Charlton W (H) 35.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +13.3%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.7%

Birmingham W (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlton W face Birmingham W in England - Women's Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlton W a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Birmingham W 35%, so Charlton W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Charlton W and 1.3 for Birmingham W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlton W are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 2.00 for Birmingham W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Charlton W vs Birmingham W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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