Portsmouth W vs Nottingham F. W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

England - Women's Championship Regular Season - 21 Westleigh Park· Portsmouth Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Portsmouth W PPG 0.80

0-1 MISS

Nottingham F. W PPG 1.20

Home· +18.2% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Portsmouth W face Nottingham F. W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portsmouth W a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Nottingham F. W 45%, so Nottingham F. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Portsmouth W and 2.0 for Nottingham F. W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portsmouth W are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Nottingham F. W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.3%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +18.2%

Draw 28.2%

Odds: 3.85 EV: +8.6%

Away 44.5%

Odds: 1.60 EV: -28.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.9% Odds: 1.65 -1.2%

Over 3.5 43.7% Odds: — —

BTTS 58.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Portsmouth W

1.36

Nottingham F. W

2.02

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -1.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-1.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 85%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 31%

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.80) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)