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Portsmouth W vs Nottingham F. W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Portsmouth W

PPG 0.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Nottingham F. W

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.9%0-26.9%0-34.7%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.6%1-19.4%1-29.4%1-36.4%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.4%2-26.4%2-34.3%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-22.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 23.1% 4.33 +18.2%

Draw 28.2% 26.0% 3.85 +8.6%

Away win 44.5% 62.5% 1.60 -28.8%

Over 2.5 59.9% 60.6% 1.65 -1.2%

Over 3.5 43.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.5%

A 44% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portsmouth W1.4

Nottingham F. W2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTSMOUTH W · PPG 0.80

NOTTINGHAM F. W · PPG 1.20

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.80) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Portsmouth W (H) 27.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +18.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +8.6%

Nottingham F. W (A) 44.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portsmouth W face Nottingham F. W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portsmouth W a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Nottingham F. W 45%, so Nottingham F. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Portsmouth W and 2.0 for Nottingham F. W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portsmouth W are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Nottingham F. W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Portsmouth W vs Nottingham F. W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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