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Birmingham W vs Ipswich Town W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Birmingham W

PPG 2.10 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ipswich Town W

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.1% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.9%1-12.9%1-21.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.5%2-15.6%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-025.3%4+-118.9%4+-27.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.1% 84.7% 1.18 -13.7%

Draw 20.1% 16.7% 6.00 +20.6%

Away win 6.9% 8.3% 12.00 -17.2%

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 67.3% — — —

BTTS 52.8% 52.4% 1.91 +0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.8%

H 73% / xG 3.8-0.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.6%

#2 4–0 9.2%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 5–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Birmingham W3.8

Ipswich Town W0.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 67.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BIRMINGHAM W · PPG 2.10

IPSWICH TOWN W · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.10), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Birmingham W (H) 73.1%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -13.7%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +20.6%

Ipswich Town W (A) 6.9%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Birmingham W face Ipswich Town W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Birmingham W a 73% chance, the draw 20% and Ipswich Town W 7%, so Birmingham W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Birmingham W and 0.7 for Ipswich Town W (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Birmingham W are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.60 for Ipswich Town W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Birmingham W vs Ipswich Town W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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