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Sunderland W vs Crystal P. W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sunderland W

PPG 1.30 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Crystal P. W

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.1%0-27.8%0-35.1%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.2%1-110.0%1-29.7%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.2%2-16.2%2-26.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.5%3-31.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 19.6% 5.10 +39.2%

Draw 28.2% 27.4% 3.65 +2.9%

Away win 44.5% 65.4% 1.53 -31.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 57.1% 1.75 +3.3%

Over 3.5 39.2% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.5%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2✓ 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 8.1%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunderland W1.2

Crystal P. W1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNDERLAND W · PPG 1.30

CRYSTAL P. W · PPG 1.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.30) vs Away GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Sunderland W (H) 27.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +39.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +2.9%

Crystal P. W (A) 44.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunderland W face Crystal P. W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunderland W a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Crystal P. W 45%, so Crystal P. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sunderland W and 1.9 for Crystal P. W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunderland W are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.70 for Crystal P. W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Sunderland W vs Crystal P. W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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