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Vora vs AF Elbasani Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Vora

PPG 1.19 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

AF Elbasani

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-114.4%0-27.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.8%2-16.3%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.8%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 75.2% 1.33 -61.7%

Draw 34.5% 25.0% 4.00 +38.0%

Away win 36.7% 10.5% 9.50 +248.7%

Over 2.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

Over 3.5 14.8% — — —

BTTS 42.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob42.4%

D 34% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 0–1 14.4%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vora0.9

AF Elbasani1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VORA · PPG 1.19

AF ELBASANI · PPG 1.63

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.19) vs Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Vora (H) 28.8%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -61.7%

Draw 34.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +38.0%

AF Elbasani (A) 36.7%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +248.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vora face AF Elbasani in Albania - Superliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vora a 29% chance, the draw 35% and AF Elbasani 37%, so AF Elbasani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Vora and 1.1 for AF Elbasani (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vora are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.63 for AF Elbasani. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +248.7%. This match finished 4-2.

Vora vs AF Elbasani Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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