Today / Albania - Superliga / Teuta Durres vs KF Tirana

Teuta Durres vs KF Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Teuta Durres

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

KF Tirana

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-111.2%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-17.9%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 43.5% 2.30 -8.0%

Draw 33.4% 32.3% 3.10 +3.5%

Away win 26.6% 34.5% 2.90 -22.9%

Over 2.5 35.5% 42.0% 2.38 -15.5%

Over 3.5 16.5% — — —

BTTS 44.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.1%

H 40% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1✓ 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teuta Durres1.2

KF Tirana0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.5% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TEUTA DURRES · PPG 1.25

KF TIRANA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Teuta Durres (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -8.0%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +3.5%

KF Tirana (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teuta Durres face KF Tirana in Albania - Superliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teuta Durres a 40% chance, the draw 33% and KF Tirana 27%, so Teuta Durres are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Teuta Durres and 0.9 for KF Tirana (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teuta Durres are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for KF Tirana. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Teuta Durres vs KF Tirana Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Albania - Superliga Predictions