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Wigan vs Stockport County Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Wigan

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

UPCOMING

Stockport County

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.9%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.0%1-111.8%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.8%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 32.3% 3.10 +24.9%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 35.6% 45.9% 2.18 -22.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

Over 3.5 34.3% 34.5% 2.90 -0.5%

BTTS 58.9% 62.5% 1.60 -5.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Away O1.5 42.1% 50.0% 2.00 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.9%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wigan1.5

Stockport County1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WIGAN · PPG 1.55

STOCKPORT COUNTY · PPG 1.49

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wigan (H) 40.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +24.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Stockport County (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wigan face Stockport County in England - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wigan a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Stockport County 36%, so Wigan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wigan and 1.3 for Stockport County (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wigan are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.49 for Stockport County. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +22.7%.

Wigan vs Stockport County Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions