Today / England - League One / Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday

Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Peterborough

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

UPCOMING

Sheffield Wednesday

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.4%0-26.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.1%1-111.7%1-28.5%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.6%3-13.8%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 32.3% 3.10 +8.2%

Draw 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Away win 41.6% 47.6% 2.10 -12.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 65.4% 1.53 -8.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 43.5% 2.30 -16.3%

BTTS 59.0% 69.4% 1.44 -15.0%

Home O1.5 39.8% 46.5% 2.15 -14.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 57.1% 1.75 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.0%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterborough1.4

Sheffield Wednesday1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERBOROUGH · PPG 1.55

SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY · PPG 1.93

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Peterborough (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Sheffield Wednesday (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterborough face Sheffield Wednesday in England - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterborough a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Sheffield Wednesday 42%, so Sheffield Wednesday are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Peterborough and 1.5 for Sheffield Wednesday (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterborough are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.93 for Sheffield Wednesday. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%.

Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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