Today / England - League One / Doncaster vs Plymouth

Doncaster vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Doncaster

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDD ·

UPCOMING

Plymouth

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.0%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.6%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 41.3% 2.42 +7.9%

Draw 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Away win 29.1% 37.3% 2.68 -13.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.9% 62.5% 1.60 -15.4%

Home O1.5 39.8% 46.5% 2.15 -14.4%

Away O1.5 32.8% 43.5% 2.30 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Doncaster1.4

Plymouth1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DONCASTER · PPG 1.32

PLYMOUTH · PPG 1.31

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Doncaster (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +7.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Plymouth (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Doncaster face Plymouth in England - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Doncaster a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Plymouth 29%, so Doncaster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Doncaster and 1.1 for Plymouth (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Doncaster are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.31 for Plymouth.

Doncaster vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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