Today / England - League One / Burton Albion vs Cambridge United

Burton Albion vs Cambridge United Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Burton Albion

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLW ·

UPCOMING

Cambridge United

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+19.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.2%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.4%1-111.0%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 38.2% 2.62 +30.2%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 26.8% 38.2% 2.62 -17.9%

Over 2.5 59.6% 50.0% 2.00 +19.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 27.8% 3.60 +31.0%

BTTS 59.0% 57.1% 1.75 +3.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 40.0% 2.50 +24.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burton Albion1.8

Cambridge United1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BURTON ALBION · PPG 1.59

CAMBRIDGE UNITED · PPG 1.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Burton Albion (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +30.2%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Cambridge United (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burton Albion face Cambridge United in England - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burton Albion a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Cambridge United 27%, so Burton Albion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Burton Albion and 1.2 for Cambridge United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burton Albion are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.64 for Cambridge United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +43.3%.

Burton Albion vs Cambridge United Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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