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Leicester vs Oxford United Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Leicester

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDW ·

UPCOMING

Oxford United

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.1%1-111.1%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.7%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Draw 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.0%

Away win 25.5% 21.7% 4.60 +10.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 33.9% 33.9% 2.95 +0.0%

BTTS 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leicester1.7

Oxford United1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LEICESTER · PPG 1.50

OXFORD UNITED · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Leicester (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -14.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

Oxford United (A) 25.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leicester face Oxford United in England - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leicester a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Oxford United 26%, so Leicester are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Leicester and 1.1 for Oxford United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leicester are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Oxford United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%.

Leicester vs Oxford United Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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