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Barnsley vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Barnsley

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWW ·

UPCOMING

Stevenage

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.6%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.5%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.0%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 45.5% 2.20 +8.7%

Draw 26.4% 29.9% 3.35 -6.9%

Away win 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 51.8% 57.8% 1.73 -10.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 45.5% 2.20 -12.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 35.7% 2.80 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.8%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barnsley1.4

Stevenage0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.47

STEVENAGE · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barnsley (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.9%

Stevenage (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barnsley face Stevenage in England - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barnsley a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Stevenage 24%, so Barnsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Barnsley and 0.9 for Stevenage (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barnsley are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.16 for Stevenage. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Barnsley vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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