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Huddersfield vs Notts County Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Huddersfield

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

UPCOMING

Notts County

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.0%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.0%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.2%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 58.8% 1.70 -8.9%

Draw 23.4% 26.0% 3.85 -5.9%

Away win 22.9% 22.0% 4.55 +2.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.6% 1.83 +9.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 32.3% 3.10 +12.8%

BTTS 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 56.5% 1.77 -1.2%

Away O1.5 32.0% 29.0% 3.45 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huddersfield2.0

Notts County1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HUDDERSFIELD · PPG 2.08

NOTTS COUNTY · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Huddersfield (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -8.9%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.9%

Notts County (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huddersfield face Notts County in England - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huddersfield a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Notts County 23%, so Huddersfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Huddersfield and 1.0 for Notts County (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huddersfield are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.36 for Notts County. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%.

Huddersfield vs Notts County Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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