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Bromley vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 19:00

Bromley

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLL ·

UPCOMING

AFC Wimbledon

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.1%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.6%1-110.8%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.5%3-15.6%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 41.7% 2.40 +8.0%

Draw 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

Away win 31.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

Over 2.5 60.8% 50.0% 2.00 +21.6%

Over 3.5 37.6% 28.6% 3.50 +31.6%

BTTS 61.5% 57.8% 1.73 +6.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 42.0% 2.38 +18.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -42.2%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bromley1.8

AFC Wimbledon1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BROMLEY · PPG 1.21

AFC WIMBLEDON · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bromley (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +8.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.5%

AFC Wimbledon (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bromley face AFC Wimbledon in England - League One on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bromley a 45% chance, the draw 24% and AFC Wimbledon 31%, so Bromley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bromley and 1.2 for AFC Wimbledon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bromley are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.88 for AFC Wimbledon. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.0%.

Bromley vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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