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Bradford vs Mansfield Town Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Bradford

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

UPCOMING

Mansfield Town

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.5%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.0%1-111.3%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.6%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 53.8% 1.86 -4.6%

Draw 23.9% 28.2% 3.55 -9.1%

Away win 24.7% 25.0% 4.00 -0.7%

Over 2.5 56.2% 54.1% 1.85 +4.0%

Over 3.5 35.3% 32.3% 3.10 +9.4%

BTTS 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Away O1.5 31.9% 32.3% 3.10 -1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bradford1.7

Mansfield Town1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRADFORD · PPG 1.77

MANSFIELD TOWN · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bradford (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.86 · IMPLIED 53.8% EV -4.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.1%

Mansfield Town (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bradford face Mansfield Town in England - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bradford a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Mansfield Town 25%, so Bradford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bradford and 1.0 for Mansfield Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bradford are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.98 for Mansfield Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.4%.

Bradford vs Mansfield Town Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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