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Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Ujpest

PPG 1.27 · HOME

7 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nyiregyhaza

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.0%0-25.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.2%1-111.7%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 45.0% 2.22 -15.0%

Draw 24.9% 29.0% 3.45 -14.1%

Away win 36.8% 35.0% 2.86 +5.3%

Over 2.5 54.8% 54.1% 1.85 +1.4%

Over 3.5 32.4% 31.3% 3.20 +3.7%

BTTS 58.1% 59.9% 1.67 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.1%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ujpest1.5

Nyiregyhaza1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UJPEST · PPG 1.27

NYIREGYHAZA · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Ujpest (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -15.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.1%

Nyiregyhaza (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ujpest face Nyiregyhaza in Hungary - NB I on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ujpest a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Nyiregyhaza 37%, so Ujpest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ujpest and 1.4 for Nyiregyhaza (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ujpest are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.29 for Nyiregyhaza. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 7-2.

Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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