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Academico Viseu vs Vizela Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Academico Viseu

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vizela

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.6%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.4%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 48.5% 2.06 +1.4%

Draw 28.9% 30.8% 3.25 -6.1%

Away win 21.9% 29.9% 3.35 -26.6%

Over 2.5 47.0% 50.0% 2.00 -6.0%

Over 3.5 25.4% 29.4% 3.40 -13.6%

BTTS 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.4%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 0–0✓ 7.8%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Academico Viseu1.6

Vizela1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ACADEMICO VISEU · PPG 2.27

VIZELA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.27) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Academico Viseu (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV +1.4%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.1%

Vizela (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Academico Viseu face Vizela in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Academico Viseu a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Vizela 22%, so Academico Viseu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Academico Viseu and 1.0 for Vizela (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Academico Viseu are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.47 for Vizela. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Academico Viseu vs Vizela Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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