Today / UKS SMS Lodz W vs UJ Krakow W

UKS SMS Lodz W vs UJ Krakow W Prediction

Saturday, May 2, 2026

UKS SMS Lodz W
PPG 1.33 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS
UJ Krakow W
PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.89)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.2%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.4%1-110.1%1-26.1%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.2%3-16.3%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.8%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 53.0%
Draw 25.0%
Away win 22.0%
Over 2.5 60.9%
Over 3.5 38.5%
BTTS 61.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%
#2 2–1 9.8%
#3 2–0 8.1%
#4 1–0 8.4%
#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UKS SMS Lodz W1.9
UJ Krakow W1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UKS SMS LODZ W · PPG 1.33

UJ KRAKOW W · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

UKS SMS Lodz W (H) 53.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
UJ Krakow W (A) 22.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UKS SMS Lodz W face UJ Krakow W on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UKS SMS Lodz W a 53% chance, the draw 25% and UJ Krakow W 22%, so UKS SMS Lodz W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for UKS SMS Lodz W and 1.2 for UJ Krakow W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UKS SMS Lodz W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.89 for UJ Krakow W. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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