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Coburg vs Ingolstadt B Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Coburg

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ingolstadt B

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.5%0-26.1%0-34.6%0-4+4.3%1 1-03.6%1-18.1%1-29.0%1-36.7%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.7%2-16.0%2-26.6%2-34.9%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.9%3-23.3%3-32.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 53.6% — — —

Over 2.5 71.5% — — —

Over 3.5 50.6% — — —

BTTS 70.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob70.0%

A 54% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 1–3 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coburg1.5

Ingolstadt B2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COBURG · PPG 1.00

INGOLSTADT B · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Coburg (H) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ingolstadt B (A) 53.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Coburg face Ingolstadt B in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coburg a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Ingolstadt B 54%, so Ingolstadt B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Coburg and 2.2 for Ingolstadt B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coburg are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Ingolstadt B. This match finished 4-0.

Coburg vs Ingolstadt B Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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