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Port FC vs Buriram Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:30

Port FC

PPG 2.43 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Buriram Utd

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.3%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.5%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.7%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 44.4% 2.25 -8.6%

Draw 28.0% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Away win 31.4% 37.0% 2.70 -15.2%

Over 2.5 55.8% 58.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Over 3.5 33.4% 36.4% 2.75 -8.2%

BTTS 60.3% 64.5% 1.55 -6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

D 28% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port FC1.6

Buriram Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT FC · PPG 2.43

BURIRAM UTD · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.43), Away EXCELLENT (2.29)

Win probability 1X2

Port FC (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -8.6%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Buriram Utd (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port FC face Buriram Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port FC a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Buriram Utd 31%, so Port FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Port FC and 1.4 for Buriram Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port FC are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.29 for Buriram Utd. This match finished 3-1.

Port FC vs Buriram Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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