Port FC vs Buriram Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Thailand - Thai League 1 Regular Season - 29 PAT Stadium· Bangkok Saturday, May 2, 2026 12:30

Port FC PPG 2.43

3-1 MISS

Buriram Utd PPG 2.29

Draw· -2.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Port FC face Buriram Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port FC a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Buriram Utd 31%, so Port FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Port FC and 1.4 for Buriram Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port FC are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.29 for Buriram Utd. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.6%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -8.6%

Draw 28.0%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -2.0%

Away 31.4%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -15.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.8% Odds: 1.70 -5.1%

Over 3.5 33.4% Odds: 2.75 -8.2%

BTTS 60.3% Odds: 1.55 -6.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Port FC

1.56

Buriram Utd

1.35

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -6.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.43), Away EXCELLENT (2.29)