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Stallion vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:30

Stallion

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Manila Digger

PPG 2.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.5%0-24.7%0-34.3%0-4+5.6%1 1-02.1%1-15.7%1-27.8%1-37.0%1-4+9.3%2 2-01.7%2-14.7%2-26.4%2-35.8%2-4+7.6%3 3-00.9%3-12.5%3-23.5%3-33.1%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.0% — — —

Draw 19.3% — — —

Away win 59.7% — — —

Over 2.5 81.0% — — —

Over 3.5 63.3% — — —

BTTS 76.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob76.1%

A 60% / xG 1.6-2.7 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stallion1.6

Manila Digger2.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.0% · O3.5 PROB 63.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STALLION · PPG 1.67

MANILA DIGGER · PPG 2.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.78) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Stallion (H) 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Manila Digger (A) 59.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stallion face Manila Digger in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stallion a 21% chance, the draw 19% and Manila Digger 60%, so Manila Digger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Stallion and 2.7 for Manila Digger (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stallion are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.78 for Manila Digger. This match finished 1-5.

Stallion vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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