Today / KSV Baunatal vs Giessen

KSV Baunatal vs Giessen Prediction

Saturday, May 2, 2026

KSV Baunatal

PPG 1.79 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Giessen

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.7%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.8%1-17.9%1-26.6%1-33.6%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.7%3-16.1%3-25.1%3-32.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.4%4+-24.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 28.9% — — —

Over 2.5 73.2% — — —

Over 3.5 52.8% — — —

BTTS 72.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob72.7%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KSV Baunatal2.1

Giessen1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.2% · O3.5 PROB 52.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KSV BAUNATAL · PPG 1.79

GIESSEN · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.79) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

KSV Baunatal (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Giessen (A) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

KSV Baunatal face Giessen on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KSV Baunatal a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Giessen 29%, so KSV Baunatal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for KSV Baunatal and 1.7 for Giessen (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KSV Baunatal are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.20 for Giessen. This match finished 1-3.

KSV Baunatal vs Giessen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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