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Kanchanaburi vs Chonburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Kanchanaburi

PPG 1.08 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chonburi

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.7%0-26.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.0%1-112.4%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-17.9%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.4%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 52.6% 1.90 -37.5%

Draw 29.8% 29.0% 3.45 +2.8%

Away win 37.3% 27.8% 3.60 +34.3%

Over 2.5 49.5% 56.5% 1.77 -12.4%

Over 3.5 27.6% 33.9% 2.95 -18.6%

BTTS 55.8% 60.6% 1.65 -7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.8%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kanchanaburi1.3

Chonburi1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KANCHANABURI · PPG 1.08

CHONBURI · PPG 1.07

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Kanchanaburi (H) 32.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -37.5%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +2.8%

Chonburi (A) 37.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kanchanaburi face Chonburi in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kanchanaburi a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Chonburi 37%, so Chonburi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kanchanaburi and 1.4 for Chonburi (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.07 for Chonburi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Kanchanaburi vs Chonburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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