Today / Szekszardi W vs Diosgyori VTK W

Szekszardi W vs Diosgyori VTK W Prediction

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Szekszardi W
PPG 0.78 · HOME
4 – 0
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Diosgyori VTK W
PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.6%0-24.1%0-33.1%0-4+3.0%1 1-03.0%1-16.8%1-27.7%1-35.8%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.2%2-35.4%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.7%3-13.9%3-24.5%3-33.4%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.8%4+-23.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+2.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 31.3%
Draw 22.0%
Away win 46.6%
Over 2.5 78.0%
Over 3.5 59.1%
BTTS 76.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 4-0
xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob76.7%

A 47% / xG 1.9-2.3 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 77%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%
#2 1–2 7.7%
#3 2–2 7.2%
#4 2–1 6.3%
#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Szekszardi W1.9
Diosgyori VTK W2.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.0% · O3.5 PROB 59.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SZEKSZARDI W · PPG 0.78

DIOSGYORI VTK W · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Szekszardi W (H) 31.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 22.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Diosgyori VTK W (A) 46.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Szekszardi W face Diosgyori VTK W on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Szekszardi W a 31% chance, the draw 22% and Diosgyori VTK W 47%, so Diosgyori VTK W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Szekszardi W and 2.3 for Diosgyori VTK W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Szekszardi W are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.67 for Diosgyori VTK W. This match finished 4-0.

PredictVantage

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