Today / Samtredia vs Bolnisi

Samtredia vs Bolnisi Prediction

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Samtredia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bolnisi

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.1%0-27.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.8%1-112.4%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.6%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.1%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% — — —

Draw 29.8% — — —

Away win 39.0% — — —

Over 2.5 49.0% — — —

Over 3.5 27.2% — — —

BTTS 55.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.3%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–1✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samtredia1.2

Bolnisi1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMTREDIA · PPG 1.00

BOLNISI · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Samtredia (H) 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bolnisi (A) 39.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Samtredia face Bolnisi on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samtredia a 31% chance, the draw 30% and Bolnisi 39%, so Bolnisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Samtredia and 1.4 for Bolnisi (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samtredia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Bolnisi. This match finished 2-1.

Samtredia vs Bolnisi Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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