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Aragvi Dusheti vs Telavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Telavi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-111.6%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.7%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 40.0% 2.50 -2.5%

Draw 33.9% 33.3% 3.00 +1.7%

Away win 27.2% 38.5% 2.60 -29.3%

Over 2.5 34.5% 43.5% 2.30 -20.6%

Over 3.5 15.7% — — —

BTTS 43.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.3%

H 39% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragvi Dusheti1.2

Telavi0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 2.25

TELAVI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=39.0%

Win probability 1X2

Aragvi Dusheti (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -2.5%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.7%

Telavi (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragvi Dusheti face Telavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragvi Dusheti a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Telavi 27%, so Aragvi Dusheti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aragvi Dusheti and 0.9 for Telavi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragvi Dusheti are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Telavi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Aragvi Dusheti vs Telavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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