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BKMA vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

BKMA

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Alashkert

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-112.3%0-28.6%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.1%1-112.7%1-28.9%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.7%2-16.6%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 18.5% 5.40 +39.9%

Draw 30.7% 27.0% 3.70 +13.6%

Away win 43.4% 64.5% 1.55 -32.7%

Over 2.5 43.9% 54.1% 1.85 -18.8%

Over 3.5 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -27.0%

BTTS 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.4%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BKMA1.0

Alashkert1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BKMA · PPG 1.00

ALASHKERT · PPG 1.82

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.82) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

BKMA (H) 25.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +39.9%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +13.6%

Alashkert (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

BKMA face Alashkert in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BKMA a 26% chance, the draw 31% and Alashkert 43%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for BKMA and 1.4 for Alashkert (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BKMA are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.82 for Alashkert. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.9%. This match finished 2-2.

BKMA vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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