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Bangkok Utd vs Ayutthaya Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Bangkok Utd

PPG 1.93 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ayutthaya Utd

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.7%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.5%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 69.4% 1.44 -33.2%

Draw 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +21.0%

Away win 24.8% 16.7% 6.00 +48.8%

Over 2.5 49.6% 66.7% 1.50 -25.6%

Over 3.5 27.7% 43.5% 2.30 -36.3%

BTTS 54.4% 62.5% 1.60 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bangkok Utd1.6

Ayutthaya Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGKOK UTD · PPG 1.93

AYUTTHAYA UTD · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Bangkok Utd (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -33.2%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +21.0%

Ayutthaya Utd (A) 24.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +48.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bangkok Utd face Ayutthaya Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bangkok Utd a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Ayutthaya Utd 25%, so Bangkok Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bangkok Utd and 1.1 for Ayutthaya Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bangkok Utd are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.57 for Ayutthaya Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +48.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Bangkok Utd vs Ayutthaya Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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