Bangkok Utd vs Ayutthaya Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Thailand - Thai League 1 Regular Season - 29 Thammasat Stadium· Rangsit Saturday, May 2, 2026 11:30

Bangkok Utd PPG 1.93

4-1 MISS

Ayutthaya Utd PPG 1.57

Away· +48.8% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Bangkok Utd face Ayutthaya Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bangkok Utd a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Ayutthaya Utd 25%, so Bangkok Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bangkok Utd and 1.1 for Ayutthaya Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bangkok Utd are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.57 for Ayutthaya Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +48.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.4%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -33.2%

Draw 28.8%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +21.0%

Away 24.8%

Odds: 6.00 EV: +48.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.6% Odds: 1.50 -25.6%

Over 3.5 27.7% Odds: 2.30 -36.3%

BTTS 54.4% Odds: 1.60 -13.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Bangkok Utd

1.56

Ayutthaya Utd

1.09

Model SuggestionBTTS -13.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -13.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+48.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -38.1%

Bet Hit 38% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away GOOD (1.57)