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Kuressaare vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Kuressaare

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Levadia

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-18.5%0-29.4%0-37.0%0-4+6.5%1 1-04.0%1-18.9%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.1%2-14.6%2-25.1%2-33.8%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.7%3-11.6%3-21.8%3-31.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.3% 7.7% 13.00 +98.9%

Draw 22.0% 16.7% 6.00 +32.0%

Away win 62.7% 85.5% 1.17 -26.6%

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 41.1% — — —

BTTS 59.0% 51.3% 1.95 +15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob59.0%

A 63% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare1.0

Levadia2.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.50

LEVADIA · PPG 2.33

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 15.3%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +98.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +32.0%

Levadia (A) 62.7%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Levadia in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 15% chance, the draw 22% and Levadia 63%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kuressaare and 2.2 for Levadia (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.33 for Levadia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +98.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Kuressaare vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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