Today / Thailand - Thai League 1 / N. Ratchasima vs Sukhothai

N. Ratchasima vs Sukhothai Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:00

N. Ratchasima

PPG 0.93 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Sukhothai

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-111.9%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.9%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-17.5%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 47.6% 2.10 -18.7%

Draw 34.4% 31.3% 3.20 +10.1%

Away win 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -11.2%

Over 2.5 32.8% 51.3% 1.95 -36.0%

Over 3.5 14.6% 29.9% 3.35 -51.1%

BTTS 41.9% 57.8% 1.73 -27.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.9%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 14.9%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

N. Ratchasima1.1

Sukhothai0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

N. RATCHASIMA · PPG 0.93

SUKHOTHAI · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.93) > Away POOR (0.29)

Win probability 1X2

N. Ratchasima (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.7%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +10.1%

Sukhothai (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

N. Ratchasima face Sukhothai in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives N. Ratchasima a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Sukhothai 27%, so N. Ratchasima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for N. Ratchasima and 0.9 for Sukhothai (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, N. Ratchasima are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.29 for Sukhothai. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 1-0.

N. Ratchasima vs Sukhothai Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Thailand - Thai League 1 Predictions